SHARPE- Seismic Hazard - Probabilistic Assessment at long Return Periods - Exploratory project


The present scientific proposal aims at developing a holistic assessment PSHA at long return periods, and the evaluation of associated epistemic uncertainties. This goal is to be achieved by incorporating testing and evaluation of the consistency of the different parts that are integrated into the PSHA calculation. 
The target study area will be W Iberia and its tectonic analogues (stable continental regions), so that the research results may contribute to the prioritisation of resources for seismic hazard mitigation in Portugal. This general objective involves two main steps: A) a shorter-term analysis of the consistency between the ground-motion attenuation characteristics assumed in magnitude evaluation and in ground motion propagation models, and an evaluation of the second-order effects of these assessments; and B) a longer-term assessment of fault activity in Western Iberia and the development of a self-consistent seismic source methodology for intraplate regions that explicitly incorporates both the geographically varying uncertainty in seismic source zone boundaries and the uncertainty that a fault is active and seismogenic.

Energy, Natural and Technological Hazards
Start Date:
End Date:

Coordinator/Local PI

Proponent Institution

CERENA / IST, Portugal

Funding Programme

The FCT Investigator Programme grant IF/01561/2014/CP1214/CT0006

Total Funding
50 000,00 €
CERENA Funding
50 000,00 €

Funding Entities